Victory in Las Vegas will secure a fourth consecutive Formula 1 title for Max Verstappen.
Anything less, and Lando Norris will still have to beat the Dutchman on track in order to keep his slim hopes alive. The Brit had been closing in on the defending champion but Red Bull racer Verstappen struck what is likely to be a decisive blow to his challenger by winning the Brazilian Grand Prix from 17th on the grid.
He is now 62 points ahead of McLaren star Norris in the drivers' championship. And if he leaves the next race, the Las Vegas Grand Prix, with a similar margin, then he will be guaranteed the title.
The Sprint format will be used in Qatar which means there will be a bumper 34 points on offer if a driver wins both races and gets the extra point for setting the fastest lap of the Grand Prix. A maximum of 24 is available from the races in Las Vegas and Abu Dhabi.
Norris would have to finish the season with a higher points total than Verstappen to win the title, as a tie would go in the Dutchman's favour. In such a scenario, the outcome of the championship would be decided on the number of races won - Verstappen has eight victories, Norris only three.
To keep his faltering chase alive, the Brit needs to be within 59 points of the defending champion. Even then, he would need to score maximum points in Qatar and Abu Dhabi and hope that, by some miracle, Verstappen fails to score at all.
Such a situation means the odds of Norris now becoming the 2024 F1 champion are astronomical. In Las Vegas, only finishing ahead of Verstappen will be enough to stop them from reaching absolute zero - and even then, in come circumstances, it may not be enough.
Mirror Sport has crunched the numbers to figure out what Norris must do in Sin City to keep his very slim title hopes alive, depending on what Verstappen's finishing position is:
- If Verstappen finishes 1st - He wins the title, regardless of who sets the fastest lap.
- If Verstappen finishes 2nd - Norris must win, regardless of who sets the fastest lap.
- If Verstappen finishes 3rd - Norris must finish at least 2nd, or he must win if Verstappen sets the fastest lap.
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If Verstappen finishes 4th - Norris must finish at least 3rd, or at least 2nd if Verstappen sets the fastest lap.
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If Verstappen finishes 5th - Norris must finish at least 4th with the fastest lap, or at least 3rd without it, regardless of whether Verstappen sets the fastest lap.
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If Verstappen finishes 6th - Norris must finish at least 5th with the fastest lap, or at least 4th without it, regardless of whether Verstappen sets the fastest lap.
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If Verstappen finishes 7th - Norris must finish at least 6th with the fastest lap, or at least 5th without it, regardless of whether Verstappen sets the fastest lap.
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If Verstappen finishes 8th - Norris must finish at least 7th with the fastest lap, or at least 6th without it, regardless of whether Verstappen sets the fastest lap.
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If Verstappen finishes 9th - Norris must finish at least 8th with the fastest lap, or at least 7th without it, regardless of whether Verstappen sets the fastest lap.
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If Verstappen finishes 10th -Norris must finish at least 8th with the fastest lap, or at least 7th if Verstappen sets the fastest lap.
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If Verstappen fails to score a point - Norris must finish at least at least 9th with the fastest lap, or at least 8th without it.
