After a tense Thai Grand Prix, just 17 points splits Jorge Martin and Francesco Bagnaia in the MotoGP championship battle?
Pramac rider Martin extended his lead from 20 to 22 points after he beat Bagnaia in a dry sprint race won by Enea Bastianini.
When rain fell for the 26-lap grand prix, the roles were reversed as Bagnaia put in one of his best rides of the season to take a vital ninth Sunday victory ahead of a struggling Martin.
Both riders displayed in equal measure the traits both need to win the championship: Bagnaia had to go for it to inflict as much damage on Martin as possible, while the latter merely had to shadow his rival.
Now officially a two-horse race, Martin goes into this weekend’s Malaysian GP with his first chance to win the championship. If he outscores Bagnaia by 21 points at Sepang, the title is his.
But how realistic is that?
On the latest Crash MotoGP podcast, host and Crash.net social media manager Jordan Moreland asks: “Here’s my question for you for Malaysia: who has the advantage out of the championship two?
“Is it Jorge Martin or is it now Pecco Bagnaia? Obviously, Bagnaia can go in and just be a bit more freer than Jorge can. But it’s the other elements added into it, how do they view that, or do they just focus on each other? It’s difficult.”
Crash MotoGP Editor Peter McLaren says: “I think Martin still has the advantage overall, but I think it’s going to be a difficult task to hold off Pecco this weekend.
“Just with the momentum as well, with that boost he’ll get from his back was against the wall, the pressure was on and he came out and delivered.
“He knows Sepang is a good track for him. But undoubtedly, those 17 points are really valuable. So, there’s no reason for Martin to panic but I think he has got a real fight on his hands.
“And I think now for both of them, it’s thinking about Valencia. It’s put yourself in the best possible position for a Valencia showdown on the Saturday or the Sunday.
“Of course he [Martin] has got a mathematical chance this weekend, but I don’t think he can by any means look at it that way.
“If things had gone better for him [in Thailand], had it been a dry race and he had have taken more points, he’d have gone there with a points lead in the mid-20s, maybe even the high 20s, maybe he could have realistically looked at Malaysia as wrapping it up.
“I don’t thin that’s the case now. I think it’s very much go in with the same attitude as [Thailand], limit the damage. As the team have been telling him: you don’t need to beat Pecco, but you need to be close to him, keep that points lead as big as you can for Valencia.”
Crash Senior Journalist Lewis Duncan adds: “I think just the way things have gone Martin is definitely the guy because he kind of just has to really shadow Pecco, whether that’s for fifth, whether that’s for first - it doesn’t really matter, he just has to be there.
“I think the sprint will be the most interesting sprint of the year. Typically this year when Pecco has made a mistake it’s been in the sprint, and it’s where Jorge generally has been strongest the past couple of years.
“We could go into Sunday with Martin winning the sprint, Pecco not scoring any points, then all of a sudden everything changes.
“I think the sprint is going to be really, really key in not just that weekend, but I think how that sprint goes this weekend will probably determine the outcome of the championship.”
