True colors: How Southwest Airlines' race to profitability left a void in smaller markets

   

Southwest Airlines is a unique airline in several ways. First, it only operates aircraft from one aircraft family, the Boeing 737.

This keeps maintenance and training costs low and allows for fewer interruptions, as the aircraft are extremely similar.

Second, Southwest is the only airline in the US not to have assigned seating. Since its founding more than 50 years ago, Southwest has maintained its open seating policy.

But announced earlier this year that it will soon begin assigned seating.

Third, Southwest is the only airline in the US to include checked baggage on every ticket, regardless of fare. Southwest goes beyond including just one bag, every passenger can take two free bags every time they travel.

And finally, Southwest operates a point-to-point network instead of the traditional hub-and-spoke.

This means that Southwest has more nonstop flights, as its operations do not have to connect to hubs.

Sometimes, this can allow for faster travel between cities as hub-and-spoke models require that passengers fly through hubs to connect.

Prior to the C.O.V.I.D.-.1.9 pandemic, Southwest had an impressive streak of 47 years of annual profits.

The airline celebrated this mark in January 2020, just months before the pandemic crippled the aviation industry. Then-CEO Gary Kelly said,

"Our operational and financial performances in 2019 were truly remarkable considering an estimated $828 million reduction in operating income and the significant reduction in planned flights due to the MAX groundings. We currently have 34 MAX aircraft in our fleet, and at the beginning of last year, we expected to have 75 at the end of 2019, and another 38 deliveries in 2020. With the ongoing uncertainty regarding the timing of the MAX return to commercial service, we remained nimble and adjusted our 2019 plans, as necessary, without abandoning our long-term goals.”

As Kelly highlighted, the grounding of MAX aircraft and reduced deliveries from Boeing hindered the airline’s operations.

Despite this, Southwest launched flights to Hawai’i in 2019. At the time of launch, four Hawaiian airports were served from three California airports.

No other airline can boast a 47-year profitability streak. The ‘Big Three’ carriers, United Airlines, American Airlines, and Delta Air Lines, have declared bankruptcy at least once in the last 50 years.

The only year Southwest did not record a profit was in 2020, quickly bouncing back. Well, kind of.

Since the C.O.V.I.D pandemic, Southwest’s profits have lagged. According to Reuters, Southwest’s shares have lost about 40% of their value in the last three years.

In a September report, Reuters said that analysts predicted Southwest’s profits to drop 83% over 2023.

As Southwest has struggled, it has exited markets launched during the recovery from the C.O.V.I.D.-.1.9 pandemic.

A report from the New York Times outlined that the airline’s exit from Bellingham, Washington, reveals a reversal in strategy.

According to data from Cirium, in December 2021, Southwest was the second-largest airline at Bellingham International Airport. Now, the airline has completely pulled out.

Southwest launched its flights to Bellingham in November 2021. At the time, the airline launched two routes: one to Harry Reid International Airport in Las Vegas and the other to Oakland International Airport.

Right from the beginning, Southwest connected Bellingham to Oakland twice daily. Service to Las Vegas was only available once daily.

In April 2023, Southwest began connecting Bellingham to another one of its focus airports, Denver International Airport.

That route was served just once weekly until November, when the airline only operated two flights for the whole month.

In February, flights increased to weekly, and then in June, increased again to thrice weekly.

Southwest’s operations in Bellingham reached their peak in July, when the airline operated 194 flights to and from the Washington city.

From November 2021 until August 2024, when the airline exited the market, 5,874 flights were operated. A breakdown is below:

Oakland - 3,427 - 526,925

Las Vegas - 2,285 - 351,619

Denver - 162 - 25,246

Data from the United States Department of Transportation (USDOT) shows that despite having the fewest number of flights, Denver was the route with the highest load factor.

From November 2021 to August 2024, Southwest filled 81.13% of seats from DEN. Las Vegas had the second-highest load factor at 79.70% and Oakland had the lowest. The Oakland route averaged a 64.95% load factor during its operational lifetime.

Flights to Syracuse Hancock International Airport (SYR) launched also launched in November 2021. That month, Southwest began connecting SYR to Orlando International Airport (MCO) and Baltimore/Washington International Thurgood Marshall Airport (BWI).

Like with Bellingham; one route was operated several times daily while the other was operated once weekly.

Flights from Baltimore were launched on November 14, 2021. Southwest deployed the smallest aircraft in its fleet, the Boeing 737-700, for the route.

These planes have 143 seats, making Southwest’s operations for the first month 101 flights and 14,443 seats.

Baltimore had thrice daily flights for most of the duration of the operations on the route. Operations ended on August 4th.

The -700s were also used from Orlando but on one weekly flight. In October 2023, Southwest increased operations from MCO to daily.

On August 4th of this year, Southwest withdrew from the market.

Tampa had the highest average load factor to Syracuse. From April 2022 to this August, Southwest filled 84.75% of the seats. 9,589 passengers flew on the route.

Orlando had the second-best load factor of the three routes to Syracuse. From the launch in November 2021 through August, 83.5% of seats were filled.

The worst load factor was on the route that had the most flights, Baltimore. Southwest only filled 71.15% of its flights in nearly three years. Data shows 318,352 passengers flew between Baltimore and Syracuse.