U.S. Aviation: How has the flight offering between the US & Central America changed in recent years?

America's flights to many international destinations have recovered beyond their pre-pandemic numbers (with the notable exception of United States flights to Mainland China). United States flights to South America, Africa, and Mexico are up, but what about Central America? According to data provided by Cirium (an aviation analytics company), US connections are also reaching new highs.

Growth of United States flights to Central America

Central America is generally defined as the nations between Mexico and Colombia (Guatemala, Belize, Honduras, Nicaragua, San Salvador, Costa Rica, and Panama). In November 2019 (on the eve of the pandemic), there were 7,325 flights with 1.2 million seats to these nations. In November 2024, there are 8,655 scheduled flights with 1.5 million seats. That represents an 18% increase in flights and a 27% increase in seat capacity (suggesting larger capacity aircraft are being used on the routes).

The top airlines operating flights to Central America are Copa Airlines, United Airlines, American Airlines, avianca, and Spirit Airlines. Spirit is one of the major airlines to have seen a decline over the last five years - declining by 4% in flights and 3% in seats carried. Delta Air Lines operates the sixth most flights to the region, but it is also down. In November 2019, Delta flew 672 flights, but in November 2024, it is scheduled to be 549 - a decline of 18% and a seating capacity fall of 13%.

Leading Latin American airlines

While many of the top airlines that fly between the United States and Central America are US-based airlines, the airline with the most flights is Copa Airlines. Copa Airlines' IATA code is "CM" and should not be confused with Honduras' CM Airlines. Copa Airlines (formally Compañía Panameña de Aviación) is the flag carrier of Panama and is one of the top airlines in Central America, providing extensive connections throughout the region.

Avianca is the largest airline in Colombia and one of the oldest airlines in the world (it was founded in 1919). Its name is a Spanish acronym for Aerovias del Continente Americano, or "Airways of the American Continent" in English. Avianca is the flag carrier of Colombia and is also the second-largest airline in South America (Chile's LATAM is the largest).

Flights also up to leisure-destination Costa Rica

While some of the flight increase may have been driven by migrant workers and people visiting friends and family the US and Central America, some of the increase appears to be driven by tourism. Costa Rica is the top tourist destination in Central America and is popular for its tropical beaches and rainforests and its wildlife like sloths and leatherback sea turtles.

A large share of the flights to Costa Rica are leisure travel and represent around 27% of the flights to the region. US flights to Costa Rica have grown much more than the rest of the region as a whole. In November 2019, there were 1,622 flights to Costa Rica, and in November 2024, that rose to 1,988 flights. Seats rose from 268,937 to 344,062. Overall, flights have increased by 23% and seats by 28% over pre-pandemic numbers.

For comparison, there are 5,855 flights scheduled in November 2024 for Mexico's Cancun (and over 25,000 flights for Mexico as a whole). That is around 1.1 million seats for Cancun - meaning that scheduled flights for November will only have around 100,000 fewer seats for Cancun than all of Costa Rica.

Only US-airlines flying to Costa Rica

Top airlines flying to Costa Rica:

• United Airlines: 581 flights (up from 349)
• American Airlines: 446 flights (up from 380)
• JetBlue: 299 flights (up from 174)
• Southwest Airlines: 210 flights (up from 204)
• Spirit Airlines: 167 flights (down from 180)
• Delta Air Lines: 164 flights (down from 244)
• Alaska Airlines: 117 flights (up from 91)

Notably, all the significant airlines flying between Costa Rica are US-based airlines. As Costa Rica is considered a leisure destination, it attracts low-cost US carriers JetBlue, Spirit, and the hybrid carrier Southwest. These airlines focus on domestic flights within the United States and a limited number of leisure destinations to America's near abroad.

Additionally, the ultra-low-cost airline Sun Country Airlines is scheduled to operate four flights to Costa Rica this November (it had none in November 2019).

The broader context

Global aviation has had a tumultuous past five years. The greatest shock was the COVID-19 pandemic, but other disruptions include the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the closure of Russian air space to Western airlines, Boeing's ongoing crisis, conflicts in the Middle East, and geopolitical tensions with China (and a decline of Chinese international tourists).

Compared to five years ago, flights from the United States to Africa are up 33%, flights to Mexico are up 25% (although available seats are up 43%), and flights to South America are up 11%. By stark contrast, flights to Mainland China are down 74% (although they are down 91% between Canada and China).